India

With one of the world’s highest COVID-19 caseloads and the deepest economic contraction in the first quarter, India has had a tough year. Since September 2020 there has been some economic recovery led by pent-up demand and festivals, but the overall picture remains very mixed. For every sector doing better, another is faring worse, slowing recovery overall. This dragging effect, together with a risk-averse banking sector, means we don’t expect GDP to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023. And post-pandemic growth could be the lowest since the millennium.

Businesses in India are navigating routes to opportunity in testing times

India’s optimism has declined since last year, with resurgence of COVID-19 seen as the biggest obstacle to growth. However, nine in ten companies still intend increasing investment.

Having experienced considerable change, businesses see entrepreneurialism as crucial to future success, enabling faster product / service development, speed to market and stable supply chains. Concerns about the latter will be mitigated by selecting suppliers closer to home with tight COVID-19 controls, operational resilience and agility.

Despite difficult conditions, international trade has grown slightly, and the outlook is generally positive. Around half of businesses in India are trading within APAC, North America and Europe.

Almost all companies see the opportunities for growth offered by sustainability. Around four in five have set environmental, social and governance targets (up on 2019), and more are measuring all three aspects than in 2019.

Current status of business