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The need for speed: Net-zero outcomes - Not what should, what will
Net-zero progress increasingly hinges on delivery speed, not on identifying what technologies or targets are needed.
Despite wider policy coverage and clearer decarbonisation pathways, emissions continue to rise, and practical bottlenecks are becoming more visible. A forward-looking view of “transition conditions” across the whole economy – spanning economics, finance, policy, delivery capability, and external pressures – offers a more useful read on whether momentum is strengthening or weakening.
Net-zero transition analysis now centres on how fast economies can deliver emissions reductions, not just what an ideal pathway requires. Technologies and policy frameworks are better understood and more widely adopted, yet global energy-related emissions still rose by 0.8% in 2024 to a record 37.8Gt , highlighting a persistent gap between ambition and delivery. Investment shortfalls and constraints across infrastructure, supply chains, and labour markets further limit progress.
Common indicators such as national climate plans (NDCs) and backward-looking metrics such as emissions and renewable deployment help track direction but provide limited real-time insight into whether transition momentum is accelerating or stalling. To address this, the Net-Zero Transition Conditions Framework (NZTCF) assesses forward-looking conditions that shape delivery before they appear in outcomes data.
The framework identifies five interdependent drivers of transition speed:
- Relative economic attractiveness
First, relative economic attractiveness determines whether low-carbon deployment is commercially viable and capable of scaling through normal market mechanisms. As technologies become cost-competitive, deployment shifts from being primarily policy-driven to increasingly economics-driven. - Capital mobilisation
Second, capital mobilisation determines whether economically viable projects can secure financing at sufficient scale and at acceptable cost. Because low-carbon systems are capital-intensive, financing conditions exert an outsized influence on deployment rates. - Policy commitment and credibility
Third, policy commitment and credibility shape investor confidence in long-duration transition investments. Credible and durable policy frameworks reduce uncertainty, support final investment decisions and accelerate capital formation, particularly in emerging sectors where commercial economics remain less mature. - Delivery capacity
Fourth, delivery capacity determines whether economies possess the execution capability required to translate any supportive conditions given by economic attractiveness, capital availability, and policy support into real-world deployment. This includes coordination capability, institutional effectiveness, and human capital. - External pressure and market pull
Finally, external influences and market pull capture how a country’s position within the global economy shapes the incentive to transition, with the resulting read-across for speed of decarbonisation delivery. For example, trade exposure, sources of national income, and energy security are all considerations for governments in relation to their contribution to the domestic economy. Whether the types of goods and services and national income-generating activities are higher or lower carbon will create an incentive structure that either reinforces or constrains transition momentum.
Because these drivers interact, transition speed emerges from system-wide conditions rather than any single factor or the energy sector alone.
This approach supports investors, policymakers, and corporates in comparing countries’ transition momentum, anticipating competitive and economic implications, and managing risks where supportive conditions weaken. It does not aim to forecast precise emissions outcomes, reflecting uncertainty and the practical limits of translating enabling conditions into exact projections.
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The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Zoe Knight, Amy Tyler, Yaryna Kobel, Amit Shrivastava and Nneka Chike-Obi
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