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Crosscurrents

Policymakers will welcome lower oil prices, which ease some risks to growth and inflation. But other forces – AI, El Niño and uncertainty over a final US–Iran deal – could play out unevenly around the world.

Ceasefire extended, lower oil, but what about a final deal?

Headlines have been volatile in recent weeks and will no doubt remain so. It will certainly be some time before we know what the new normal in the Strait of Hormuz will look like. But the initial agreement by the US and Iran – to extend the ceasefire and lay a framework for future nuclear negotiations – has led to a quicker-than-expected fall in oil prices.

If sustained, that reduces some of the downside risks to growth in the global economy and some of the upside risks to inflation, even though things will take months rather than weeks to normalise. In time, some of the pressure on central banks could ease too.

The pace at which the Strait fully re-opens to all ships will not be the sole influence on the global economy in 2026-27, even if it is the single biggest. There are other powerful forces moving in different directions at the very same time that will have uneven impacts between countries and even within them.

AI and El Niño playing key roles

In particular, there is export and investment exposure to the AI boom, where the growth impacts could be quite concentrated. GDP in Taiwan and the US is set to continue to be lifted the most, but other exporters, especially in Asia, will benefit, too. Some of the associated price pressures could be more widespread: the sheer scale of AI investment underway means many policymakers perceive that the demand-side effects on inflation might be more immediate than the supply-side effects on productivity and labour markets.

Also there are risks to agricultural output and food prices from a severe El Niño, particularly in emerging economies, including the likes of India and Brazil. Even less-exposed advanced economies could be affected by the higher imported food prices as well as higher packaging costs given plastic prices.

Fiscal policy, too, will have varying impacts on the growth trajectory in 2026-27.

Growth set to vary across economies

Pulling all of these forces together, we still expect growth to slow in Q2 and Q3 given the squeeze on real wages from higher inflation and, for those reliant on credit, tighter financial conditions, even as AI investment and exports hold up well.

Our year-average global growth forecasts for 2026-27 are unchanged at 2.5% and 2.7% respectively, but we have made some sizeable country revisions, upwards to the US and downwards in India and Brazil. We have revised up global inflation forecasts to 3.8% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027, with these forecast adjustments driven almost entirely by the emerging world, notably across Asia.

2.5%
Estimated global GDP growth in 2026 (HSBC)
2.7%
Forecast global GDP growth in 2027 (HSBC)

For policy rates, we now see more G10 central banks, including the ECB and the Bank of England, staying on hold from here, but, having missed their inflation forecasts for so long, policymakers will be wary about adjusting their communication too soon. Risks relating to the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, food prices and also second-round effects on inflation have not gone away.

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