Export credit industry eyes a $3trn-plus Middle East capex spend

While tariff-related turbulence sent shocks through global markets in recent months, ECA financing is somewhat insulated from this volatility. In fact, the sector tends to come into its own at times of crisis.

This sentiment was evident among hundreds of delegates who gathered in Dubai for the region’s annual TXF event on agency, energy and infrastructure finance.

“When liquidity becomes constrained elsewhere, ECA financing is the one product that continues to deliver,” observes Alexei Rybakov, Head of Export Finance for Middle East, North Africa and Türkiye (MENAT) at HSBC.

TXF Middle East & Africa 2025, in Dubai, underlined how export credit players continue to reinvent themselves and hone their products to support major infrastructure activity across the region.

^The panel of international ECAs moderated by Rybakov at the event provided evidence of the sheer range of ECA-supported projects currently planned or under way in the Middle East and Africa.

Many schemes are driven by the Gulf governments’ efforts to diversify their economies. Perhaps the most high-profile and significant by size, is the NEOM development in Saudi Arabia.

NEOM continues to take shape on the ground while attracting fresh finance for new phases. Most recently, SACE secured $3bn under a long-term multi-currency untied facility – the Italian agency’s largest ever such deal.

Tourism is a critical strand of the diversification strategy. The spectacular 320km2 Six Flags Qiddiya theme park, near Riyadh, is another landmark project progressing with the help of export credit financing. A bank consortium, which includes HSBC, is backing a $700m Islamic Murabaha financing facility, guaranteed by UK Export Finance, to support the construction of the park¹.

Much ECA financing is being channelled to support the energy transition. “Nations like Egypt are looking to ECAs to support their renewables programmes,” Rybakov says. “In the Gulf states, on the other hand, commercial bank liquidity remains robust and traditional bank lending dominates the project finance space for renewables projects. But ECAs do have a role to play in funding the energy transition even with strong borrowers”, a notable example is the $3bn financing deal with JBIC to support the decarbonisation efforts of Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company, ADNOC².

Major transport projects, with lengthy implementation periods, are also a good fit for ECAs. Rail, in particular, is enjoying a boom across the MENAT region. Turkey’s current scheme to develop 140km of low-carbon electric railway between Yerköy and Kayseri, for example, is backed by a £1.25bn facility provided through export credit agencies³.

“Rail sector equipment is manufactured in countries with very active ECAs, and the long tenors available mean this is a highly attractive funding option for such projects,” says Rybakov.

With a host of national rail and urban metro projects in planning or development, and momentum building for the potential $250bn network that would link all six GCC countries, rail represents one of the biggest potential opportunities for the ECA industry in the coming years⁴.

For now, ECA activity in the Gulf states remains heavily concentrated. A handful of key borrower groups who use export credit financing to diversify their funding sources account for around three-quarters of the market volumes each year.

“The challenge for the sector today is to innovate so that its products continue to attract those key borrowers, while also working to broaden the client base,” Rybakov says.

ECAs have already extended the range of products they offer, with a focus on the untied financing that is very popular with borrowers in the region.

The Italian agency, SACE, for example, has identified new export opportunities for an Italian value chain by adapting its product offering in the region, through partnering with IFFCO Group, to deliver SACE’s first Islamic Facility under Push Program, structured by HSBC⁵.

For tied products, ECAs are now taking advantage of the revised OECD Consensus rules, which allow for extended repayment tenors for up to 22 years for climate-friendly loans and 15 years for most conventional projects.⁶ “These were the most wide-ranging changes in many years, and there is evidence that borrowers like the additional flexibility,” says Rybakov.

The make-up of the industry in the region has been changing too. Traditionally, the Middle East was a destination market for ECAs outside of the region. Now many of those states have set up their own ECAs, with Saudi and Qatari agencies following the lead of the UAE’s Etihad Credit Insurance.

“The region has now also become an origination market, with exports and investments from GCC states going outside the region – primarly into sub-Saharan Africa so far,” Rybakov says. These strengthening links were the reason this year’s Middle East and Africa TXF events, traditionally separate, were held jointly for the first time in some years.

Far from squeezing out overseas players, the presence of local ECAs serves to extend the overall market, Rybakov believes, while offering new opportunities for collaboration.

With its strong and long-established presence in the region, HSBC is well placed to use its local knowledge and relationships to take advantage of such opportunities, Rybakov adds.

HSBC has a large team of export finance bankers on the ground in Dubai who handle the entire deal execution process locally, staying close to their clients.

That on-the-ground strength has underpinned several notable deals, propelling the bank to the top of TXF regional league tables for ECA financing . “Clients trust our execution capabilites and you can only get to the top if you also deliver competitive terms” says Rybakov.

He is optimistic about the industry’s potential as massive new projects come onstream, despite the likely knock-on impacts from global trade disruption.

“The scale of the opportunity for the ECAs and exporters is immense – with a total value of current projects around $2.1trn in the GCC alone, and a further $1.5trn in the planning stages,” Rybakov adds.

“If oil prices remain depressed for a longer period, we might start seeing delays – but the GCC states in particular have the financial buffers to continue with the infrastructure spend. The overriding sentiment remains upbeat despite the recent headwinds.