- Article
- Global Research
- General Research Insights
- Energy transition
Global cooling
As our climate changes, demand for refrigeration and air conditioning is growing
Artificial intelligence is turbocharging the need for cooling in data centres
What can be done to stop cooling tech from making global warming worse?
Not so cool after all?
Cooling is a natural growth market in a warming world. Air conditioning and refrigeration help make homes comfortable, keep food fresh, and allow for medicines to be stored and transported. And as our climate changes – with over 70% of the global population now exposed to extreme heat – they are more in demand than ever.
Cooling already consumes around 20% of global electricity today. Energy demands are set to rise. New technologies such as artificial intelligence are turbocharging demand for data centres, which need to be artificially cooled. In the UK, for instance, the energy infrastructure company National Grid has estimated that electricity demand from data centres is set to rise sixfold in the next decade.
Demographic change and rising living standards are also driving demand. Economic development often goes hand in hand with rising demand for cooling. In mainland China, the amount of energy used for space cooling increased by 68 times between 1990 and 2016 as the economy accelerated. As other parts of the world with high temperatures experience rapid development, we could see a similar pattern. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global share of households with an air conditioner is set to rise from around 36% today to 60% by 2050.
But cooling also contributes to global warming. Where the electricity that drives cooling technologies is derived from sources such as oil and gas, it is indirectly responsible for carbon emissions. This, in turn, exacerbates climate change. A damaging feedback loop is created. Cooling equipment can also produce direct emissions of greenhouse gases such as hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).
Decarbonising cooling is an important part of the global energy transition. As cooling is generally powered by electricity, the rate at which economies decarbonise their electricity energy supply more generally – for example, by switching to renewable sources – is key. So too is the take-up of electric vehicles. Air conditioning systems in electric vehicles powered by renewable sources produce fewer emissions than air conditioning powered by petrol or diesel motors.
Technological solutions could also help. These include:
- District cooling systems pumping cold water into homes across a densely populated area; this may provide more efficient and reliable cooling in cities than individual air conditioning units
- Solar air conditioning units powered directly by the sun; typically, their maximum output would coincide with sunnier (and hotter) hours of the day
- Design techniques to “future-proof” cities for climate change; careful choices in building materials, ventilation, shading and insulation could reduce the need for artificial cooling in new buildings
- Maintenance, upgrades and technological improvementsto cooling systems; these have the potential to significantly increase their efficiency
Looking ahead, there is clear scope for more active policy to decarbonise cooling. A “Global Cooling Pledge” introduced in December 2023 at COP28 is an important, internationally coordinated step. Policymakers have also reached an international agreement to curb the use of HCFCs and HFCs. But we think there is more to do, and other steps could include strengthening building codes, implementing maintenance requirements, and supporting training and upskilling for the cooling sector. In policy circles, cooling could be a hot topic for years to come.
Would you like to find out more? Listen to Amy and Sean discuss their report on The Macro Brief podcast.
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