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Solar in space: A new frontier
There’s a hot new theme in the global solar industry: solar panels in space. But why the sudden interest, who is leading the way in exploring the potential, and what are the key milestones to watch?
What’s the buzz about solar power in space?
The idea of using solar energy to power machinery in space, such as satellites, is nothing new. There is already some installed capacity in orbit today, albeit a very small amount (such as the panels on the International Space Station). But some developers are now aiming to scale up the technology at pace, largely because industry leaders have announced ambitions to deploy artificial intelligence data centres (AIDCs) in orbit.
How does solar power in space work, and why could it be good for data centres?
Solar power in space involves installing solar panels on satellites or space stations to capture sunlight directly. This offers several unique advantages, not least the fact that solar panels in space receive uninterrupted sunlight, leading to much higher energy output compared to panels on earth, which are affected by weather and day-night cycles.
A reliable energy output is vital for data centres, which require lots of energy to function. But there are other ways in which solar space could be a good match for data centres. As companies and economies aim to scale up AIDCs significantly on earth, they are coming across bottlenecks in securing energy supply and land, especially in the US. Data centres also often need significant amounts of coolant, usually water, to prevent overheating. This comes at an environmental cost.
Space, by contrast, means reduced cooling needs. Space is naturally cold, so data centres in orbit would require less energy for cooling, and no water is needed. Data security is a further consideration. Space-based data centres can offer isolated environments, potentially reducing risks from cyberattacks or geopolitical tensions.
What are the potential obstacles?
While the potential benefits are significant, so too are the challenges – indeed, the prospect of significantly scaling up space solar and AIDCs may look ambitious and even unlikely to many people. The obstacles include:
- High costs: Launching satellites and solar panels into space is expensive; the ability to reuse rockets could be key to making AIDCs in space economically viable.
- Technical hurdles: Space equipment must withstand radiation and extreme temperatures; continued innovation could help extend its lifespan.
- Logistical issues: There are limits to how many satellites can be placed in orbit (around 60,000 in low-earth orbit, for instance), and international rules govern the allocation of “parking spots” in space; expect competition between different participants to gain a first-mover advantage.
What’s more, space-based energy and data centres will always face earth-based competition. Their business case depends in part on whether space-based solutions can compete with rapidly improving terrestrial alternatives.
Who is leading the way on solar in space?
The US and China are at the forefront of expanding solar in space and testing the viability of orbital data centres. In the US, the private company SpaceX has launched advanced satellites and announced plans for AIDCs in space, while Google’s Project Suncatcher is testing AI computing in space.
In China, the government and private sector are investing heavily, with plans to launch large numbers of satellites and build the first space-based data centre within five years. Companies are also testing new types of solar cells, such as perovskite tandem cells, which may be particularly suitable for space use.
What are the next steps and key milestones to watch?
We think the development of space-based solar power is likely to follow a number of phases. We see the next couple of years as a proof-of-concept stage, with small-scale tests and launches. This is likely to be followed by early commercialisation towards the end of this decade, with larger (gigawatt-level) solar power deployments as costs fall and technology matures. By 2035, it is conceivable the technology will be scaling up, with space solar potentially accounting for 9% of global solar demand. And by 2040, full-scale deployment could mean 100+ gigawatts of new space-based solar capacity per year.
But developments over the next couple of years will determine whether these scenarios come to fruition. Key questions to watch include how quickly and successfully advanced, radiation-resistant solar cells can be developed at scale, and whether reusable rockets allow for major cost reductions in satellite launches. We expect continued strong interest and debate on this theme.
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