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Regional development remains a key strategy for China

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) emphasises regional coordination as vital for achieving high-quality development and modernisation by 2035. That plays to the GBA’s strength as it was labelled one of three leading city clusters (along with Jing-Jin-Ji [JJJ] and the Yangtze River Delta [YRD]) that are “major power sources” driving China’s high-quality growth through innovation, industrial upgrading and regional influence.

Chart 1. Shenzhen–Hong Kong–Guangzhou tops the global innovation cluster ranking

GBA tasked with advancing regional collaboration, creating a tech stronghold

The implications? First, we expect on-going, large-scale investments to aid regional collaboration. During the 14th FYP period, the GBA’s infrastructure investment was estimated by NDRC of Guangdong to exceed RMB6trn (c9% of regional GDP). Secondly, mainland China’s “national unified market” strategy as well as new urbanisation initiatives call for more balanced and collaborative regional development. More importantly, the 15th FYP prioritises technology self-reliance and a stronger economy, which the GBA is well positioned for as: 1) Shenzhen–Hong Kong–Guangzhou already tops a global innovation cluster ranking; 2) the three leading city clusters (JJJ, YRD and GBA) represent more than 40% of the China’s economy and make up over 70% of the so-called “new industry,” as measured by listed companies. The GBA’s main advantages are in fostering industrial clusters in IT, manufacturing and healthcare.

Hong Kong is a crucial part of the regional ecosystem

The 15th FYP tasks Hong Kong with becoming a “proactive contributor” to the national strategy via its “super connector” role. Hong Kong can do this by broadening its financial connectivity with mainland China and enhancing RMB internationalisation. On the latter, by promoting bond issuance and recycling international RMB assets, Hong Kong can boost the availability and diversity of offshore RMB products for global use, a crucial step to RMB internationalisation.

Driving China’s new development model

The 15th Five-Year Plan provides a roadmap for the GBA to fulfil its mission as a principal support of the country’s new development model. In particular, the GBA is tasked with serving as a driving force of China’s high-quality development through innovation and industrial upgrading. The plan also calls for deepening connectivity and regional coordination. The GBA also acts as a leading example for China’s ongoing transformation.


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