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Shaky Foundations

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The global economy continues to muddle through, underpinned by some narrowly-based growth drivers. So what could make them falter and what could surprise to the upside in 2026?

Global Economics Quarterly – Shaky foundations

Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist, assesses the narrow set of drivers supporting global growth and considers the implications if a possible AI bubble were to pop.

Global Economics Quarterly – Q1 2026

Another upgrade to global growth

For much of the past year, it has been a familiar story. We have seen countless unpredictable events but global growth, and notably world trade growth – despite tariffs and now payback from US import frontloading – have surprised to the upside.

Our global GDP estimate for 2025 at 2.8% is now slightly higher than the 2.7% we forecast a year ago. We have also raised our 2026 forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, much of it driven by a US upgrade reflecting payback after the government re-opening. Another notable upgrade includes Japan, reflecting the recently approved fiscal stimulus.

2.8%
Estimated global GDP growth in 2025 (HSBC)
2.7%
Forecast global GDP growth in 2026 (HSBC)

Yes, there are fears of an AI bubble, and yes, the US labour market and mainland China’s economy have weakened recently – but both can look forward to some fiscal stimulus support in 2026. There has also been some reprieve on tariffs, with the US-China trade truce and unwind of some tariffs on agricultural products.

Concentration risk

But this is not a global economy that is firing on all cylinders. Many of the upside surprises to growth have been delivered by three narrowly based driving forces within individual economies and all relate, to varying extents, to the global AI story. Investment in AI technology demand is set to stay high, and world trade growth should also stay supported, even if the pace moderates a touch after the surge over the past year or so.

But what if AI is actually a bubble? This is not part of our forecasts, but if an AI bubble were to pop, it would have enormous ramifications globally. The other question is, how much of a lift to productivity could it ultimately deliver and over what time period? Policy makers cannot know yet, but we consider the implications for monetary and fiscal policy should AI prove to be a transformational shift for productivity in the near term.

Monetary policy: a hawkish tilt for some

On monetary policy, our outlook is one of ongoing divergence between central banks – we still expect more cuts in 2026 from the Bank of England and many emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere where inflation is falling or already very low.

For the Fed we think no further cuts are warranted given inflation risks are still on the upside and activity should be quite robust in H1 2026. It all hinges on the labour market so we cannot rule out the possibility of one more insurance cut if the unemployment rate rises above 4.6% in the December/January data.

But some central banks ended the year on a more hawkish note, making it increasingly clear that they are at the end of their easing cycle. The ECB looks set to be on hold in 2026, with the next move set to be up, albeit not until H2 2027. Japan could raise rates again and with upswings evolving, we now expect rate rises in Australia and New Zealand in Q3 2026.

Would you like to find out more? Listen to Janet’s interview on The Macro Brief podcast here, or simply search for The Macro Brief on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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