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- Global Research
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Gamechangers: Giant leaps for humankind
Humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and quantum computing may be some way from widespread usage but they could have big, tangible implications for the global economy, with potential productivity gains offset by many downside challenges
Giant leaps for humankind
We have discussed before why it is so easy to find reasons to be negative about the global economy, but the positives are much less often discussed. In our 25 March Gamechangers report, we outlined the positive developments in terms of clean energy and technology offsetting many of the demographic challenges facing the world.
Right now, it feels like we are in the midst of a rapid transformation in the technology space – and the economy is adjusting to it at pace. Changes in energy, battery, and of course AI technology are coming every day and will continue to alter the underlying fabric of the global economy, mostly for the better. But beyond these three areas, there are even more rapid changes in the economy coming in technology spaces that are slowly creeping into the wider consciousness. In this report, we consider the economic implications of each of:
Each of these areas is seeing rapid progress. Coupled with AI, they are likely to lead to transformative impacts for the quality of human life, the labour market, and productivity.
The upsides could be substantial – with the most optimistic projections estimating that a combination of all these emerging technologies could add 1.5ppts or more to annual productivity growth in the US by the time we reach the mid-2030s. On the face of it, that’s a massive shot in the arm for potential growth across the world.
- Humanoid robotics
- Autonomous driving
- Quantum computing
But this comes at a huge cost. Employment in many sectors has the potential to be more substantially affected over the next decade than at any point in history – be that driving or delivery jobs, or the widening share of services roles that fall under the remit of automation.
The transition will also be messy; a drop in car production in particular will hurt some economies hard. The interplay between human and autonomous drivers is going to be tricky for congestion and the required investment is huge and may not come to fruition. A much more digitised world will mean even more money will be needed to fund cybersecurity protections.
As such, there will be big winners and big losers. These technological breakthroughs, like AI, create the potential to make some firms much more productive and profitable, but smaller firms and some workers could be left behind. What is good for the stock market may not be good for the broad economy.
There will also be implications across our nine themes: a much more automated society, with more innovation and breakthroughs that could ripple across payments, healthcare, and science. The shape of our urban areas could one day be transformed by autonomous vehicles and these changes could help to speed up the energy transition. The full report contains a discussion of how these game-changing technologies will impact the Nine Investment Themes that we track at HSBC Global Investment Research.
The challenges for policymakers will be trying to address the negative implications, while embracing the productivity potential in a world where governments need anything they can get to lift growth and make their ongoing fiscal challenges slightly less troublesome. The problem is that this is much easier said than done.
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