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HSBC Funding the Future Survey
The mood is cautiously optimistic among both private and public investors in high growth sectors heading into 2026, according to the seventh edition of our proprietary Funding the Future Survey.
2026: Bullish hopes vs bubble fears
The outlook for venture capital (VC) activity has moderated a little since October on the back of fears over AI investments and fallout from the private credit challenges in the US, but remains positive. Public investors overwhelmingly expect equity markets to continue the rally into the new year.
Carried out by Survation, this survey captures the views of 170 global investors representing a significant portion of the private and public high-growth investment community. Survey participants represented a total assets under management of USD1.96trn with 37% (about USD725bn) attributed to VC and private equity (PE) investors.
The fieldwork took place from 17 November to 5 December 2025. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and a lower level of uncertainty about US trade policy than in the first half of the year. It was also a rocky period for listed tech stocks, with a tech sell-off in November as a narrative about an “AI bubble” appeared to gain traction in some parts of the market. Private credit also created a wave of liquidity concerns on the back of high-profile defaults.
Against this backdrop, investor sentiment about the near-term outlook for VC/PE activity has fallen back a little but remains positive. Some 42% of private market investors foresee an increase in activity over the next quarter, down from 55% in our previous edition (October 2025). Sentiment about the longer-term outlook has also softened a little, with 55% expecting stronger activity over the next 12 months, down from 74% in October. The economic environment and macro risks are seen as the key headwinds to activity, while the pace of technological change remains the key tailwind.
VC/PE sentiment on the Tech sector seems to have a cooled a little, though, compared with surveys earlier this year. Healthcare, PURE (Power, Utilities, Resources and Energy) and TTM (Technology, Telecoms and Media) are now the sectors with the most bullish sentiment among private investors. This hints at greater dispersion among managers. Perhaps the tech sell-off in November or fears of an AI bubble have prompted some decision-makers to consider downside scenarios to AI risks.
By contrast, listed investors are more positive about the outlook for public equity markets. 71% of listed investors foresee public equity markets rising in Q1 2026. They rank Technology more highly (with the second most bullish sentiment among different sectors, behind only TTM), and have a bullish outlook, with 78% of investors saying they anticipate an increase in tech earnings in 2026.
AI: building not bursting
AI investments are still building and not bursting, according to investors. 78% of investors anticipate a continued increase in AI capex in 2026, however over 80% think spending is either utilised about right or over-utilised
Investors’ responses suggest AI investments within both public and private markets should continue to grow in 2026. The investments look less like a speculative bubble and more a long-term investment cycle, with productivity upside and a genuine risk of disappointment if earnings fail to keep up.
In our full note, we dig deeper into investor expectations for IPOs and exits, the macro outlook, investment themes, regional trends, and more.
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The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Shiva Joon, CFA, Mark McDonald, Rajesh Kumar, Frank Lee, Thomas Devlin, Duncan Toms, CFA and Max Kettner, CFA
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This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. It does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document. Information in this document is general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on it, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek professional investment and tax advice.
The decision and responsibility on whether or not to purchase, subscribe or sell (as applicable) must be taken by the investor. In no event will any member of the HSBC group be liable to the recipient for any direct or indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with reliance on any information and materials herein.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognised market it may be difficult for investors to sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. Some of the statements contained in this document may be considered forward looking statements which provide current expectations or forecasts of future events. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those described in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.
This document is for information purposes only and may not be redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions. If this report is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group services in effecting a transaction in any investment mentioned in this document.
Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned in this document.
HSBC and/or its officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities in companies mentioned in this document. HSBC may act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell or buy securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies and may also be represented on the supervisory board or any other committee of those companies.
From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. HSBC policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel expenses from the issuer for such visits.
HSBC Bank plc is registered in England No 14259, is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. (070905)
© Copyright 2026, HSBC Bank plc, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the issuer of the report.
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