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HSBC Funding the Future Survey

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The mood is cautiously optimistic among both private and public investors in high growth sectors heading into 2026, according to the seventh edition of our proprietary Funding the Future Survey.

2026: Bullish hopes vs bubble fears

The outlook for venture capital (VC) activity has moderated a little since October on the back of fears over AI investments and fallout from the private credit challenges in the US, but remains positive. Public investors overwhelmingly expect equity markets to continue the rally into the new year.

Carried out by Survation, this survey captures the views of 170 global investors representing a significant portion of the private and public high-growth investment community. Survey participants represented a total assets under management of USD1.96trn with 37% (about USD725bn) attributed to VC and private equity (PE) investors.

The fieldwork took place from 17 November to 5 December 2025. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and a lower level of uncertainty about US trade policy than in the first half of the year. It was also a rocky period for listed tech stocks, with a tech sell-off in November as a narrative about an “AI bubble” appeared to gain traction in some parts of the market. Private credit also created a wave of liquidity concerns on the back of high-profile defaults.

Against this backdrop, investor sentiment about the near-term outlook for VC/PE activity has fallen back a little but remains positive. Some 42% of private market investors foresee an increase in activity over the next quarter, down from 55% in our previous edition (October 2025). Sentiment about the longer-term outlook has also softened a little, with 55% expecting stronger activity over the next 12 months, down from 74% in October. The economic environment and macro risks are seen as the key headwinds to activity, while the pace of technological change remains the key tailwind.

VC/PE sentiment on the Tech sector seems to have a cooled a little, though, compared with surveys earlier this year. Healthcare, PURE (Power, Utilities, Resources and Energy) and TTM (Technology, Telecoms and Media) are now the sectors with the most bullish sentiment among private investors. This hints at greater dispersion among managers. Perhaps the tech sell-off in November or fears of an AI bubble have prompted some decision-makers to consider downside scenarios to AI risks.

By contrast, listed investors are more positive about the outlook for public equity markets. 71% of listed investors foresee public equity markets rising in Q1 2026. They rank Technology more highly (with the second most bullish sentiment among different sectors, behind only TTM), and have a bullish outlook, with 78% of investors saying they anticipate an increase in tech earnings in 2026.

AI: building not bursting

AI investments are still building and not bursting, according to investors. 78% of investors anticipate a continued increase in AI capex in 2026, however over 80% think spending is either utilised about right or over-utilised

Investors’ responses suggest AI investments within both public and private markets should continue to grow in 2026. The investments look less like a speculative bubble and more a long-term investment cycle, with productivity upside and a genuine risk of disappointment if earnings fail to keep up.

In our full note, we dig deeper into investor expectations for IPOs and exits, the macro outlook, investment themes, regional trends, and more.

Clients of HSBC Global Investment Research can read the full note by clicking here*.

To find out more about HSBC Global Investment Research, including how to subscribe, please email us at AskResearch@HSBC.com

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