Export finance – enabling trade in an uncertain world

• The ECA-backed credit market has reached record highs, reflecting a structural shift in how governments, exporters, and borrowers approach this kind of financing.
• Reform of the OECD Arrangement has extended repayment terms allowing for up to 22 years for renewable and nuclear projects, with a second round of modernisation now under consultation.
• Untied financing, which is not linked to a specific export contract, has become a fast-growing part of the market and a route for governments to pursue industrial strategy.

In times of uncertainty, export credit agencies (ECAs) are an important source of finance. These state-backed entities provide counter-cyclical support to a country’s exporters by extending credit when commercial markets are unavailable, enabling large-scale trade deals to go ahead, which otherwise could fail due to lack of funding.

Against the backdrop of last year’s disruptions to global trade, centred around the US introducing a new wave of tariffs, and this year’s energy shock, as the Strait of Hormuz faces ongoing disruptions, the ECA-backed financing market has reached record volumes. In 2025, there was USD191 billion in financing, up 38% on the previous year¹.

A recent meeting of G7 ECAs highlights how governments are leaning on ECAs to support national industrial strategies, expressing how agencies can help build resilience into supply chains, secure critical minerals, and work in emerging areas, like artificial intelligence ².

We can see innovation taking place over the previous 18 months. In 2025, US tariffs prompted new measures aimed at helping exporters deal with the impacts of tariffs. UK Export Finance, for example, quickly announced that it was expanding its financing support for British businesses by GBP20 billion ³ (USD27.2 billion). When the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded early in 2026, Export Finance Australia was provided with new capabilities to secure critical supplies for the Australian economy ⁴. And the Japan Bank for International Cooperation have announced USD10 billion financial support for partnership on wide energy and resources resilience ⁵.

Beyond immediate reactions to pressing events, there are ongoing changes to the OECD Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits that governs the activities of ECAs in member countries. Also known as the OECD Consensus, the Arrangement is a framework that aims to promote the fair use of export credits, emphasising the quality of goods and services, rather than the availability of export credits.

In 2023, the Arrangement underwent a significant modernisation with a package of measures. The standout change was an increase in the maximum repayment terms to up to 22 years for projects related to renewable energy and nuclear power, with 15 years the upper limit for all other projects ⁶.

There is likely more change to come, as there is active consultation going on for a second round of modernisation of the Arrangement. In June, industry representatives submitted a set of priorities to the OECD consultation ⁷. These include revising financing terms to better reflect the current risk environment – such as increasing the maximum level of support to up to 95% of the exported content.

There is also an understanding that the nature of exports is changing, with digital goods becoming an important part of the international offering for many developed economies. As such, there are calls for the Arrangement to better support the trade of software and other digital goods, bringing them on a par with physical goods.

In terms of the kind of support that ECAs are offering, untied financing has become a growing focus. This is a form of export finance that is not linked to a specific export contract. Instead, an ECA lends in support of a strategic government priority, such as a broader commitment to source from the agency’s home country over time, securing critical resources, or encouraging inbound investment.

Untied financing is attractive because it allows the agency to get involved before a contract is in place. These deals can be easier to originate and execute, compared to traditional buyer credits.

As such, the amount of untied financing has surged in recent years – achieving around one fourth of the volumes ⁸. HSBC is closely involved in supporting some of the most impactful untied finance programmes – such as Italy’s Push Strategy, run by SACE, which as of 2025 had guaranteed more than EUR15 billion of loans ⁹. Our involvement can be seen across a wide range of major transactions.

These include: a EUR500 million facility for software company Bending Spoons ¹⁰, USD400 million of financing to major Brazilian electric utility Eletrobras ¹¹, a USD300 million sustainability-linked loan for Bahrain’s nogaholding, now known as Bapco Energies ¹², and the USD625 million untied loan of the Italian ECA to Kuwait National Petroleum Company ¹³.

The world’s infrastructure needs are enormous. In financial terms, the estimated bill for new and updated infrastructure projects could be a cumulative USD106 trillion through 2040 14. Financing such a huge sum requires input from a wide variety of funding sources. ECAs are an increasingly important part of the mix, as they are able to provide long-tenor finance for projects that often take decades to become profitable.

Infrastructure accounts for the largest share of ECA medium-and long-term credit in developing countries. In the period from 2019 to 2024, ECAs issued USD74.4 billion in commitments in everything from ports to health services, with Sub-Saharan Africa taking the largest share ¹⁵.

ECAs play an important role in the energy transition, with their portfolios gradually shifting towards renewable sources. In 2025, oil and gas projects accounted for just 5% of the sector’s commitments, compared to 36% five years before. Inversely, renewables volumes amounted to 16% in 2025 compared to the 10% of the previous five-year period ¹⁶. For example, ECA financing is critical for nuclear power, particularly given extended construction periods and significant capex requirements. ECA cover is key in achieving material liquidity for these investments.

The successful funding of Sizewell C is a case in point. The new nuclear power station is a major infrastructure project for the UK, where it is expected to power up to six million homes for at least 60 years ¹⁷. The GBP5 billion loan, granted by 13 international banks, was guaranteed by Bpifrance Assurance Export, with HSBC acting as the ECA coordinator and mandated lead arranger for the French ECA ¹⁸.

As technology progresses, so too does the nature of infrastructure. In just a few years, data centres have evolved from being considered a form of commercial real estate to strategic infrastructure, as governments recognise that domestic compute capacity will determine which countries can build and run their own AI systems. And although there is currently strong appetite to fund the growth of data centres, in both public and private markets, ECAs could contribute to the financing in the years to come.

Major ECAs are already putting AI into their plans. The Export-Import Bank of the United States (US EXIM) recently announced the launch of ExportAI – an initiative that aims to accelerate the export of US AI technologies ¹⁹. In the UK, UKEF is exploring the finance models that could support the deployment of British hardware in data centres overseas ²⁰.

Supporting data centre finance is not without its challenges. One issue is that there is a wide range of components that go into a data centre. High-end semiconductors will be the most prominent cost, but there also needs to be cooling equipment, network infrastructure, and storage systems. Each of these goods could originate from a different country, which would necessitate the involvement of multiple ECAs.

While ECAs have reinsurance and coinsurance arrangements, these do not lend themselves naturally to the kind of procurement structures that are likely to be relevant to this sector. If ECAs are going to be relevant, they will need to devise entirely new programs customised to the needs of this industry. At this time, US EXIM is the only agency that appears to have made significant progress in this respect.

At HSBC, export finance is a core part of our global financing platform. We bring together export finance, infrastructure and project finance, and sustainability into a single client solution. For clients executing large, multi-faceted cross-border transactions, this breadth of capabilities within one bank can make a real difference. 

Our network is truly global, operating across all the major trade corridors, allowing us to serve clients in all the geographies where infrastructure and sovereign financing demand is growing most rapidly, backed by the risk mitigation of ECA coverage. We also have an expanding footprint of dedicated experts in many key markets – most recently, we added new team members in Mumbai, Riyadh, and Mexico City.

In addition, our long experience in export finance makes us a trusted partner for all the stakeholders involved. By working closely with ECAs, exporters, and borrowers, we are able to co-create innovative “market first” programmes. For example, in 2025 India’s Reliance Industries signed a USD500 million untied loan backed by Korea Trade Insurance Corporation, which was the first corporate untied deal by a South Korean ECA ²¹. This award-winning deal sits alongside Sizewell C, which was voted as Global Deal of the Year by The Asset ²².