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A weight off consumption
As weight loss drugs become even more popular, the impact on food spending is set to grow enough to play an important role in overall consumption data.
Economic data has had a rough time of it lately, with growing concerns about the accuracy, timeliness or even validity of a whole range of datapoints in a rapidly changing economic landscape. In this series of reports, we aim to unpack the impact of several new consumer habits on the economic data that we look out for on a monthly or quarterly basis.
We start by looking at one of the most visible changes in recent years – the rapid spread of GLP-1, or weight loss, drugs. Starting in injection form, pills are now becoming more readily available, and prices are dropping. Usage should rise further.
There have already been some implications. US spending on sugary foods has fallen, and in the UK users of these drugs are swapping fast food for vegetables.
But over the coming years this may have a much bigger impact on the economic data than we might think. Food away from home accounts for 5% of US consumer spending, and more in many other parts of the world – and the impact of reduced demand in this space could easily reduce overall consumer spending by north of 1%.
The impact of these drugs could be clear in several ways. Firstly, total food consumption will likely drop – back towards minimum calorie intake levels. That means drops of between 30% and 40% in terms of calories across the world from users. Secondly, the nature of food consumption will likely shift – early evidence from the UK suggests that consumption of snacks, fast food and ready meals is taking a big hit, while vegetables, seafood and vitamins are on the way up. Thirdly, this will have a disproportionate impact on food eaten out compared to at home.
Even if we assume these drugs are only taken by half of the people who are obese, that could lower food consumption by 2-9% depending on markets, pulling down overall consumer spending by 0.5-1.5%. In more extreme scenarios of a wider push towards lower calorie intakes, we could see overall consumption fall by 6-7% if calorie intakes more universally fall by the 30-40% drops that are possible.
As these drugs become more popular, we could also see behavioural shifts from non-users, too. A greater focus on healthy eating, fitness and higher protein intakes seems likely across societies, which could bring many health benefits and reduce healthcare spending. Spending in other areas, including on the drugs themselves, may rise to offset this.
Clearly, these drugs look set to impact consumer spending patterns materially, and we may see many implications on overall consumer demand in the coming years, particularly on food.
Would you like to find out more on the future of healthcare? Click on the card below to listen to Rajesh Kumar, Senior Global Life Sciences & Healthcare Analyst, on The Macro Brief podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The Macro Brief – Future healthcare in focus
From the rise of anti-obesity drugs to the impact of AI, Rajesh Kumar, Senior Global Life Sciences & Healthcare Analyst, looks at how the global healthcare industry is evolving at pace.
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