What global businesses must do to thrive in an age of uncertainty

International businesses face a volatile and uncertain trade environment, as they navigate rapidly evolving tariff policies, the continued effects of a recent period of high inflation and high interest rates, as well as the transformational upheaval of technologies like artificial intelligence.

In June, the World Bank lowered its global growth estimate for 2025 to 2.3%, saying the global economy was set for its weakest run outside recessions since 2008.¹

Businesses – particularly those operating across borders – must overcome substantial challenges in adapting to changes in world trade. To respond effectively, they must be agile, particularly in areas such as their supply chain and working capital strategies.

But the most successful businesses will go further, seeking to capture growth opportunities that emerge from the shifts under way rather than achieving only marginal gains. To do this they will embrace substantive strategic change and innovation – as they have done in the past.

Only a few years after the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic, global businesses today are grappling with new supply chain challenges that threaten to upend long-established systems.

According to HSBC’s Global Trade Pulse Survey, conducted in May 2025 to assess the impact of tariffs, over half of businesses say rising costs are their top supply chain concern.² They also worry about disruption from logistics delays, geopolitical factors such as sanctioned regimes, and shortages of key materials.³

As a result, many are considering reshoring their production to their home markets, or nearshoring to move it closer to their customers. According to the survey, 83% of businesses have already begun or are planning to nearshore to increase their resilience to tariff and trade upheavals.⁴

The good news is that businesses that adapt are confident of growth in the future. Nearly half of respondents to the survey expected an overall positive impact within six months, rising to just over half for the next two years.⁵

Supply chains today must also be reengineered with sustainability in mind, under pressure from customers and policymakers. At the same time, automation and AI are creating new efficiencies that can lead to significant cost savings for businesses able to put them to good use.

According to a study by PwC, the businesses that are most effectively reinventing and reengineering supply chains expect to see a fall in associated costs of 19% and an increase in revenues of 16%.⁶

Successful supply chain transformations are those that take an end-to-end approach and which aim to do more than simply survive global volatility. Faced with continued disruption, international businesses must create supply chains that bring participants into transparent ecosystems across the entire value chain.⁷

Businesses in all sectors can and should aim to do more than simply cope with conditions: the best are looking at a rapidly evolving environment and identifying new strategic priorities. This proactive approach often involves portfolio diversification, optimisation, or even venturing into entirely new markets or product areas.

Strategic shifts can have a bigger impact on growth than efficiency gains. A recent study by McKinsey traces gains in national productivity growth to strategic decisions taken by a small number of businesses – in its sample of 8,300 big companies in Germany, the UK and the US, fewer than 100 accounted for two-thirds of growth.⁸

While reducing costs and increasing efficiency are important, McKinsey found that the standout performers achieve growth through a combination of key strategic actions, such as selectively scaling their most profitable areas and exiting others, shifting their geographic focus to capture the most promising customer markets, and improving the value proposition by emphasising premium products and services.

Examples of successful strategic shifts include Apple’s pivot towards services rather than just hardware,⁹ Amazon’s decision to scale fulfilment,¹⁰ or Nvidia’s prioritisation of graphics processing units (GPUs).¹¹

Many other global companies today are seeking to make fundamental changes to drive growth. Unilever, for example, is rebalancing its portfolio and activities within its Growth Action Plan, choosing to allocate capital to premium segments, divesting some brands while acquiring others where it sees potential to scale.¹²

Others are responding to evolving tariff policy with strategic investments in different markets: GE Aerospace, for example, has announced a USD1 billion investment in its US manufacturing capabilities and supply chain,¹³ as well as smaller investments to scale the production of next-generation components in its European sites.¹⁴

Through a suite of financing and payment services, HSBC can partner with businesses to help them unlock the potential of both operational and strategic change. Named the world’s best trade finance bank for eight years in a row,¹⁵ we serve our clients with innovative solutions to help reshape their business, diversify their supply chains and step into new markets.

Our Global Trade Solutions team specialises in helping internationally active businesses optimise their transactions with suppliers and customers, while our working capital solutions can give businesses the flexibility and liquidity they need to improve efficiency – allowing them to capture strategic opportunities as soon as they emerge.