- Article
- Global Research
- Energy transition
- Understand ESG
- Disruptive technology
Europe’s renewable ambitions: Amid challenges, opportunity
- The energy crisis has put European renewables in the spotlight …
- …as governments set increasingly ambitious goals and supportive policies
- Europe is on track to exceed its 2030 wind and solar targets, in our view
2022 brought huge disruption for Europe’s energy sector as power producers scrambled for alternatives to Russian oil and gas following the invasion of Ukraine.
In some senses, however, this difficult backdrop provided an opportunity for renewables to shine – catalysing a sharper focus not only on energy security, but also on the transition to zero-carbon energy sources. In fact, we think renewables are close to a tipping point in Europe, where they move from being a disruptive technology, to a dominant one.
Many countries upped their renewable ambitions last year. Germany increased its 2030 renewable electricity target to 80%. Portugal announced targets for offshore wind and plans to meet its 2030 targets four years earlier. The Netherlands and Belgium, too, tightened their goals.
80%
Germany’s renewable electricity target by 2030
Regulators simplified the process for securing permits, and took measures to increase the number of available sites. For example, each federal state in Germany is now expected to dedicate on average 2% of their land to onshore wind.
Moves such as these are grounds to be optimistic that Europe can accelerate the development of renewables, building on the momentum achieved over recent years thanks to increasingly competitive costs and rising climate change awareness. Renewables currently account for a little over one-fifth of energy consumed in the European Union – more than double the levels seen less than 20 years ago1. But new installations exceeded the expectations of forecasters including the International Energy Association last year: and we expect the proportion of Europe’s power sourced from renewables to increase substantially over the next decade as countries and companies compete to make the most of abundant natural resources.
Technological progress will help. Development in the past decade has largely relied on onshore wind after an early boom in residential solar. Over the coming decade, we foresee a significant increase in decentralised and utility-scale solar, and offshore wind and batteries, in addition to onshore wind.
Europe’s 2030 wind and solar targets currently stand at 500GW and 600GW, respectively. We estimate that the region is on track not just to meet these ambitions, but to exceed them.
Over the longer term, too, we see factors supporting the need for renewables. Electricity demand is set to more than double in Europe by 2050. This is in part because of vehicles switching from petrol to electric; more electric heat pumps being used for heating and cooling; and more industries switching to electric power. As Europe is committed to reaching net zero by 2050, renewables are set to play a key role in meeting that demand alongside sources such as hydroelectric and nuclear.
There remain, of course, significant questions over many aspects of the path from here, such as:
- What is the future role of demand management? Some markets are already incentivising consumers to use appliances at off-peak hours. Measures such as these could help power grids flex more effectively in response to fluctuations in supply from renewable sources
- How soon will we see widespread use of green hydrogen? Surplus renewable power (generated on particularly sunny or windy days, for instance) could be used to electrolyse water, making hydrogen gas – which can be stored and deployed to boost electricity supply, power high-heat industries, or fuel long-distance and heavy-duty transport. The availability of supporting infrastructure, storage, and equipment such as electrolysers will be key
- What will be the impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act? It provides strong incentives for green investment on the other side of the Atlantic, potentially encouraging companies to prioritise new developments in the US over other locations
With European renewables increasingly centre stage, we can look forward to a lively debate on these questions and more.
Would you like to find out more? Click here* to read a free to view version of our recent note on European utilities and renewables.
To find out more about HSBC Global Research or to become a subscriber get in touch at askresearch@hsbc.com.
* Please note that by clicking on this link you are leaving the HSBC Global Commercial Banking website, therefore please be aware that the external site policies will differ from our website terms and conditions and privacy policy. The next site will open in a new browser window or tab.
Reference
The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this document, certifies(y) that the opinion(s), views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Meike Becker and Charles Swabey
This document has been issued by the Research Department of HSBC.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis or act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities/instruments mentioned in this report.
Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues.
Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance.
For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.
Additional disclosures
- This report is dated as at 15 March 2023.
- All market data included in this report are dated as at close 07 March 2023, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report.
- HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
- You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument or of an investment fund.
This document has been issued by HSBC Bank plc, which has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified. Neither HSBC Bank plc nor any member of its group companies (“HSBC”) make any guarantee, representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of this document and is not responsible for errors of transmission of factual or analytical data, nor is HSBC liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance on this information. The information and opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication, represent the present judgment of HSBC and are subject to change without notice.
This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. It does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document. Information in this document is general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on it, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek professional investment and tax advice.
The decision and responsibility on whether or not to purchase, subscribe or sell (as applicable) must be taken by the investor. In no event will any member of the HSBC group be liable to the recipient for any direct or indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with reliance on any information and materials herein.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognised market it may be difficult for investors to sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. Some of the statements contained in this document may be considered forward looking statements which provide current expectations or forecasts of future events. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance or events and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those described in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.
This document is for information purposes only and may not be redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions. If this report is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group services in effecting a transaction in any investment mentioned in this document.
Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned in this document.
HSBC and/or its officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities in companies mentioned in this document. HSBC may act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell or buy securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies and may also be represented on the supervisory board or any other committee of those companies.
From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. HSBC policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel expenses from the issuer for such visits.
HSBC Bank plc is registered in England No 14259, is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. (070905)
© Copyright 2023, HSBC Bank plc, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of insert issuing entity name. MCI (P) 017/01/2023, MCI (P) 027/10/2022
