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COP27: Inconsistency

Sharm el-Sheikh implementation plan.

Inconsistent progress: COP27 ended a day and half late with only faint outlines of progress across various climate issues after two weeks of bitter negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Various Parties were very close to walking away without a deal (Cover decision). In the end, >36 hours after the deadline, the key issue of a Loss & Damage fund was agreed. In our view, ambition was not raised, the 1.5°C target is alive only on paper and other key issues such as adaptation (GGA) and finance (NCQG) saw progress by virtue of the passage of time, rather than any substantive decisions. There are many divisions within the global climate process.

Funding Loss & Damage: This was the dominant and most contentious issue at COP27 – it held up the start and finish of the talks. Vulnerable Parties fought to get sub-item 8(f) added to the agenda and refused to leave without a fund. It was agreed “to establish a fund for responding to loss and damage whose mandate includes a focus on addressing loss and damage” but virtually none of the details were agreed. The fund won’t be operational before COP28.

Sideways ambition: There was no increase to the level of climate ambition despite the urgency (e.g. more severe extreme events, a diminishing carbon budget, rising temperatures). There was the very real possibility of 1.5°C dropping off the radar as the sense of urgency around 1.5°C was noticeably less apparent than in Glasgow. Wording around coal was identical to COP26 (i.e. not strengthened); the potential inclusion of fossil fuels and some form of “phase out/down” never made it into the decision (final or draft); we note more mentions of “low-emission” energy than before (most likely referring to gas). To try to increase ambition, the UN Secretary General will host another climate ambition summit in 2023 (before COP28).

A plan to implement: Plans that are not yet operational mean delays to climate action as funding and investment remain implementation barriers. Human rights were on show at COP27, highlighting that a just transition involves consideration of age, gender, indigenous communities, and many others. In our view, COP27 did little to accelerate the speed of transition at a political level, leaving ambition and action for future discussions. COP28 will take place in the UAE next year (30 November - 12 December), where the first global stocktake will take place and likely show just how far we are from implementing the Paris Agreement and keeping 1.5°C alive.

First published 21st November 2022.

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